{"id":1031,"date":"2015-05-01T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-05-01T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/?p=1031"},"modified":"2020-01-26T10:10:20","modified_gmt":"2020-01-26T10:10:20","slug":"libya-strategic-foresight-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2015\/05\/01\/libya-strategic-foresight-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Teemu Kilpel\u00e4inen: Libya Strategic Foresight Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id='full_slider_1'  class='avia-fullwidth-slider main_color avia-shadow   avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_one_full  avia-builder-el-first   container_wrap sidebar_right'  ><div  class='avia-slideshow av-l9olo-34f89e96fc3de7b9b51c14c99ace17a4 avia-slideshow-featured av_slideshow_full avia-slide-slider av-slideshow-ui av-control-default av-slideshow-manual av-loop-once av-loop-manual-endless av-default-height-applied   avia-slideshow-1' 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clearfix'>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-km4zs-0614ada41eb3461e6efbb361dfbae970\">\n.flex_column.av-km4zs-0614ada41eb3461e6efbb361dfbae970{\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-km4zs-0614ada41eb3461e6efbb361dfbae970 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-1  el_after_av_slideshow_full  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding  '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_heading-6ca89ba227aa71c91a5d66389f76841d\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-av_heading-6ca89ba227aa71c91a5d66389f76841d{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-av_heading-6ca89ba227aa71c91a5d66389f76841d .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-av_heading-6ca89ba227aa71c91a5d66389f76841d .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-av_heading-6ca89ba227aa71c91a5d66389f76841d av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-2  el_before_av_hr  avia-builder-el-first '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Libya Strategic Foresight Analysis<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-k5m7b9te-01401dd5e8beb25770de1be03f41ecf3\">\n#top .hr.hr-invisible.av-k5m7b9te-01401dd5e8beb25770de1be03f41ecf3{\nheight:30px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='hr av-k5m7b9te-01401dd5e8beb25770de1be03f41ecf3 hr-invisible  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-k8d08-dea0f25c8df625cf22cbdeac32688808 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><div id=\"attachment_1032\" style=\"width: 140px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1032\" class=\"wp-image-1032\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Teemu-228x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"130\" height=\"171\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Teemu-228x300.jpg 228w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Teemu.jpg 377w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 130px) 100vw, 130px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-1032\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Teemu Kilpel\u00e4inen<\/p><\/div>\n<p><strong><em>Majuri Teemu Kilpel\u00e4inen\u00a0palvelee t\u00e4ll\u00e4 hetkell\u00e4 apulaisosastop\u00e4\u00e4llikk\u00f6n\u00e4 Panssariprikaatin Esikunnassa. H\u00e4n siirtyy Ilmavoimien Esikuntaan ilmatorjuntap\u00e4\u00e4llik\u00f6n teht\u00e4v\u00e4\u00e4n 1.9.2015. H\u00e4n opiskeli Yhdysvaltain\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/jfsc.ndu.edu\/\">Joint Forces Staff College<\/a>:ssa\u00a0kev\u00e4\u00e4ll\u00e4 ja alkukes\u00e4ll\u00e4 2015. Kurssin opetus painottui operaatiotaitoon ja strategiaan.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Kaksitoista viikkoa kest\u00e4neen kurssin\u00a0tarkoituksena oli antaa kurssilaiselle valmiuksia ymm\u00e4rt\u00e4\u00e4, suunnitella ja osallistua monikansallisiin operaatioihin Yhdysvaltojen l\u00e4ht\u00f6kohdista. Kurssilla opiskeli yhteens\u00e4 240 upseeria. Euroopasta oppilaita oli Suomen lis\u00e4ksi Norjasta ja Saksasta. Artikkeli on majuri Teemu Kilpel\u00e4isen johtaman ty\u00f6ryhm\u00e4n laatima kirjoitus Strategic Foresight \u2013 valinnaisaineen kurssilta. Ty\u00f6ryhm\u00e4n kolme muuta j\u00e4sent\u00e4 olivat yhdysvaltalaiset everstiluutnantit\u00a0Judd Mahfouz\u00a0ja\u00a0Randy Oakland\u00a0sek\u00e4 majuri\u00a0David Newell.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><strong><em><br \/>\n<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>(Toim.huom.\u00a0Artikkeli on strategiaopintoihin liittyv\u00e4, majuri Kilpel\u00e4isen johtaman ty\u00f6ryhm\u00e4n opinn\u00e4ytety\u00f6 ja se on kirjoitettu\u00a0Yhdysvaltojen strategisista l\u00e4ht\u00f6kohdista. Artikkeli\u00a0julkaistaan tekij\u00f6iden toivomuksesta kokonaisuudessaan englanniksi, koska\u00a0suomen\u00a0kielelle k\u00e4\u00e4nnettyn\u00e4\u00a0sen alkuper\u00e4inen merkitys ja sis\u00e4lt\u00f6 muuttuvat.)\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Current imbalance and violence after\u00a0<strong>Muammar Gaddafi<\/strong>\u00a0in Libya has proved that United\u00a0States hadn\u2019t proper strategic foresight during recent years. H.L. Menkin once noted that \u201cFor\u00a0every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong\u201d (Menkin). This quote is\u00a0applicable to the complex problem of attempting to determine the strategic foresight in Libya. Trying to\u00a0use simple methods to divine that foresight would incorrect. It is impossible to predict the future,\u00a0especially on the complex and grand scale of geo-political relationship, but there are ways to go\u00a0about trying to envision it. Studying facts, using different kind of strategic foresight tools and\u00a0professional speculation about Libya can help in predicting the future. Focusing on those same\u00a0facts, results and speculations can also aid in avoiding bias and gross misunderstanding in the\u00a0future. Understanding Libya\u2019s current, recent and coming actions will help U.S. to create proper\u00a0strategic foresight and make use of it successfully.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. must conserve resources and prioritize its interest globally. In the National Security\u00a0Strategy 2015 preface it is being said: \u201cAs powerful as we are and will remain, our resources and\u00a0influence are not infinite. And in a complex world, many of the security problems we face do not\u00a0lend themselves to quick and easy fixes. The United States will always defend our interests and\u00a0uphold our commitments to allies and partners. But, we have to make hard choices among many\u00a0competing priorities, and we must always resist the over-reach that comes when we make\u00a0decisions based upon fear. Moreover, we must recognize that a smart national security strategy\u00a0does not rely solely on military power. Indeed, in the long-term, our efforts to work with other\u00a0countries to counter the ideology and root causes of violent extremism will be more important\u00a0than our capacity to remove terrorists from the battlefield.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2276 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Libya_kuva.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"631\" height=\"353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Libya_kuva.jpg 631w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_Libya_kuva-300x168.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The purpose of this paper is view Libya\u2019s possible future trends and give\u00a0recommendations U.S. strategic level policy-makers to make correct decision instead of just\u00a0guessing them. Complex Libya problem will be surveyed through U.S. strategic interests,\u00a0history, Elements and Behavior Over Time (BOT), the Casual Loop Diagram (CLD), future\u00a0trends, alternate futures, social change theory and anticipatory management diagram analysis.\u00a0Finally this paper will provide some strategic recommendations and conclusion.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>U.S. strategic interest\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In late 2014, the Congressional Research Service analyzed the Libyan political and\u00a0security situation and noted U.S. strategic interests in Libya that primarily focused on regional\u00a0stability, domestic security, and the safety of U.S. and allied personnel. The CRS report cited\u00a0U.S. State Department and Administration assertions that a deteriorated security situation in\u00a0eastern and southwestern regions had created a significant terrorist safe-haven for several\u00a0Islamist organizations. In particular, it identified a nexus between these under governed spaces\u00a0and foreign-fighter flow into Syria (Blanchard 2014, 1). More recently however, concerns are\u00a0growing over the reverse flow of militants, specifically ISIL, out of Syrian strongholds focused\u00a0on expanding their permanent foothold in Libya (Abi-Habib and Nissenbaum 2015).<\/p>\n<p>A recently released joint statement by several western nations, to include the United\u00a0States, further expounded upon shared interest stating, a \u201cstrong commitment to the sovereignty,\u00a0independence, territorial integrity and national unity of Libya, and to ensuring that Libyan\u00a0economic, financial, and energy resources are used for the benefit of all Libyan people (State\u00a02015).\u201d Unfortunately, confounding Western efforts to achieve these stated goals and stem the\u00a0potential for malign effects emanating from Libya is the lack of a truly reliable Libyan\u00a0government with which to partner. Due to a failed security situation in the capital, the\u00a0internationally recognized government of Libya (the Counsel of Representatives) remains in\u00a0exile in the eastern city of Tobruk with little leverage over many of the instruments of\u00a0government. Meanwhile, in and around Tripoli armed groups loyal to the exiled government and\u00a0those of their political rivals the General National Council continue to vie for control of critical\u00a0infrastructure with little regard for collateral damage thereby raising the threat of humanitarian<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Background<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Arab tribes are divided in their alignments with Operation Dawn and Operation Dignity.\u00a0Here, by Arab tribes, we refer to tribes with Arab or a mixed Arab-Berber ethnicity, which\u00a0encompass Libya\u2019s main tribes that are not Amazigh, Tuareg, or Toubou. Note that any alliances\u00a0described are in general, and there may be exceptions at a sub-tribe or familial level. Arab tribe\u00a0strength varies considerably; for example, the Warfallah are estimated to number over one\u00a0million while the Qadhadhfa are estimated around 100,000 (Bell and Witter, Institute for the\u00a0Study of War, September 2011). Tribal alignment with either Dawn or Dignity does not always\u00a0mean political or ideological support, as shown by the Tuareg\u2019s pragmatic relationship with\u00a0Dawn of Libya (see previous post). As another example, the Obeidat and Baraasa tribes support\u00a0Dignity, but are unwilling to support any alternative \u201cpolitical or military ambitions,\u201d lest they\u00a0lose their \u201ctraditional control and influence over the military\u201d (Abdallah, Al-Ahram, May 29,\u00a02014). We also have Toubou support pledged to the Council of Representatives and Operation\u00a0Dignity, which occurs only after their Arab rivals\u2019 pledge of support for Operation Dawn. This\u00a0shows again, as suggested previously, that Libyan tribalism is flexible, and that allegiances\u00a0fluctuate according to circumstances and pragmatic opportunities. Yet, even this opportunism\u00a0should not be overstated, as, religious (or refusal of some extremist positions, such as Salafism),\u00a0political, or city\/regional loyalties may override larger tribal decision for sub-tribes. (see\u00a0Mitchell, Nationalist Forces I; Islamist and Misrata Forces I &amp; Islamist and Misrata Forces\u00a0II).<\/p>\n<p>The central government and municipalities have largely failed to provide services to their\u00a0constituencies, thereby providing fertile soil to terrorist organizations, such as Ansar al-Shari\u2019a\u00a0(AAS) Benghazi and AAS Darnah, to fill that void and recruit. This confluence of factors has\u00a0allowed violent extremist elements to use platforms in Libya to conduct short-term training for\u00a0Libyan and third-country recruits en route to terrorist attack destinations in the region and to\u00a0Syria. Libya-based violent extremists continued to supply arms throughout the region and to\u00a0fighters in Syria. Regional terrorist organizations exploited the vulnerabilities of the relatively\u00a0isolated and ungoverned border regions to the south and west to launch the In Amenas attack in\u00a0Algeria in January.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Elements and Behavior Over Time (BOT)<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>At first we broke Libya down into smaller elements. The purpose of that was\u00a0trying to understand the overall situation in Libya. So Figure 1 shows 20 selected elements. We\u00a0decided to choose elements based on the importance. After choose the elements we extrapolated\u00a0leverages (red) and outcomes (green) as presented in the figure 1.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2277\" style=\"width: 624px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2277\" class=\"wp-image-2277 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_1.jpg 614w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_1-300x164.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2277\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 1.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\">On the whole the list of elements shows the most important issues in Libya which has effects to U.S. interests. Most of the elements were simplified. Example armed forces is listed as one element though it consist of Libya\u2019s Army, Navy and Air force. In addition some of the elements are listed as individual elements without clear leverage or outcomes. Example Tuaregs can be considered sometimes as a leverage and on the other hand an outcome.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Figure 2 demonstrate the most significant elements as a Behavior Over Time\u00a0(BOT). The figure presents six selected elements in five year period in the future. We chose\u00a0these elements because they represent the variety and different aspects of Libya\u2019s situation. It\u00a0should be taken into account that all trends are subjective because primary sources of\u00a0information were absent. In the figure the first one is an economy element. It shows weakness\u00a0and trend seems to continue like that the next five years. Even if Libya manages to get profits of\u00a0its oil economy will remain unilateral. Second BOT is governance element. Start point is low but\u00a0trend show downwards. This is because corruption will remain a big problem in governance the\u00a0following years. Third diagram is refugees. The number of the refugees especially to Europe is\u00a0big currently and it is expected to even grow in the future. Fourth element is violence. The level\u00a0of violence is high and it probably stays there in the coming five years. Fifth BOT is Libya\u2019s\u00a0Stability level. It can be estimated that stability will decrease in the future. At last is terrorists\u2019\u00a0safe haven. The level is now high and it will stay on that level without significant change in the\u00a0five years.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2278\" style=\"width: 623px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2278\" class=\"wp-image-2278 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"613\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_2.jpg 613w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_2-300x166.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 613px) 100vw, 613px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2278\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 2.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\">The main conclusions from these two tools are that Libya is sliding mainly downwards because of weak economy, bad governance, raising number of refugees, high level of violence, worsening stability and very likely terrorists\u2019 safe haven.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><em><strong>The Casual Loop Diagram (CLD): Outcomes and Leverages<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>In 2011, as threats to the regime loomed ominously, Sayf al Islam al Qadhafi, son to the\u00a0threatened dictator made an ominous prediction.<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8221;Libya does not have a civil society or political parties. Libya is made up of tribes that\u00a0know their areas, allies, and people. \u2026If secession or a civil war or a sedition occurs\u00a0\u2026do you think the Libyans will be able to reach an agreement on how to share oil within\u00a0a week, a month, or even two or three years? If your answer is yes, then you are\u00a0mistaken. \u2026 My brothers, we are tribes, and we will resort to arms to settle the matter\u00a0since arms are available to everyone now. Instead of mourning the death of 84 people, we\u00a0will mourn the death of hundreds of thousands of people. Rivers of blood will run\u00a0through Libya and you will flee. There will be no oil supplies, the foreign companies,\u00a0foreigners, and oil companies will leave tomorrow, and the distribution of oil will come\u00a0to an end\u2026\u201d (Blanchard 2014, 2)&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As he sits in a Tripoli prison awaiting resumption of his trial next year, one can\u2019t help but notice\u00a0the veracity of his prediction. Not only does this statement now ring prophetic, but it also serves\u00a0to illuminate the challenge the U.S. and its allies have in weighing action and subsequent\u00a0consequence.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2279\" style=\"width: 630px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2279\" class=\"wp-image-2279 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_3.jpg 620w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_3-300x165.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2279\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 3.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\">The Causal Diagram Figure 3 highlights the various key actors in the Libyan conflict. As might be expected, there is an obvious clash between generally secular forces, most notably forces loyal to the COR appointed Military Chief, General Khalifa Haftar, and those of Islamic extremist. A review of the diagram reveals four key system variables which generally shape of the entire system: moderate Islamists, secular partisans, external foreign powers, local militia and tribal groups. First, it remains to be seen how moderate Islamists will lean in the struggle between extremist elements and the secular partisans. Indeed, efforts to politically reconcile these two groups as embodied by the internationally recognized government, the Council of Representatives and their predecessor the General National Congress is the current focus of UN rapprochement efforts. Second, as Western powers and Egypt react to the emerging extremist footprint and the mass exodus of refugees toward Europe, the extent to which these powers intervene could significantly alter circumstances and potentially challenges the legitimacy of the government they all officially recognize. Finally, as alluded to previously, while becoming increasingly bifurcated over time, the allegiance of tribal groups to Libya Dawn, Operation Dignity, or neither movement is a critical factor in normalizing the security situation across the country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><em><strong>Future Trends\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>External and internal forces have shaped Libya\u2019s history and both will continue to\u00a0interact to shape its future. As has always been the case, Libya\u2019s tribes will play a large role in\u00a0determining its future as a state. Incorporating these tribes\u2019 interests into a legitimate central\u00a0government is required to increase stability in the region and leverage Libya\u2019s national capacity\u00a0as a key producer of hydrocarbons.\u00a0Externally, regional and global violent extremist\u00a0organizations have exploited the governance gap left behind when Muammar Gaddafi was\u00a0overthrown. Additionally, the intervention of legitimate regional and international organizations\u00a0will play a key role in determining Libya\u2019s future.<\/p>\n<p>Perhaps the most concerning internal trend is the freedom of movement for Libya-based\u00a0violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Since the monarchy was overthrown and the recent rise\u00a0and fall of a fundamentalist central government, the election of the Council of Representatives\u00a0(COR) has yet to produce a functioning governing body. As the illegitimate government holding\u00a0onto Tripoli continues to resist the legitimacy of the COR in Tobruk, the provision of essential\u00a0services and protection of critical infrastructure has been left to those local groups able to control\u00a0territory. Given Libya\u2019s expansive land and the numerous tribes living there, local VEOs have\u00a0exploited the lack of central governance, leveraging their newfound strength to influence youth\u00a0and disenfranchised citizens. Absent legitimate government authority, General Haftar\u2019s recent\u00a0battlefield losses to fundamentalist military forces have further destabilized Western Libya.<\/p>\n<p>Externally, international VEOs (ISIS and Al Qaeda) have also made gains in Libya, but\u00a0differences in ideology have thus far prevented the alignment of these organizations into a\u00a0cohesive force. Fruitless United Nations efforts to mediate differences among multiple power\u00a0brokers are on hold as declining security caused the UN\u2019s early departure and continues to\u00a0preclude a return. European Union forces continue to assist with security forces training and\u00a0border security, but do not possess the capacity or mandate to stymie the tide of violence and\u00a0instability. Neighboring states warily watch Libya\u2019s decline as refugees seek shelter and Libyan-based VEOs conduct regional operations. Libya\u2019s neighbors have recently undergone their own\u00a0government transformations and external stress on their limited infrastructure and immature\u00a0institutions has the potential to destabilize further the entire region.<\/p>\n<p>The most likely future in Libya is a stagnant state wherein the population remains\u00a0fractured along tribal lines and the legitimate government is unable to gain enough strength to\u00a0provide security and essential services. Local VEOs continue to operate but none becomes\u00a0dominant over the majority of the country as tribes also resist forming alliances in exchange for\u00a0their promises of security. International intervention remains uneven and ineffectual due to the\u00a0perception that Libya is not the main priority in larger efforts to contain the spread of extremist\u00a0organizations. International military intervention could assist a nascent government in returning\u00a0stability to the country, but the size and scope of effort required preclude it. Libya\u2019s neighbors\u00a0increase security on their Libyan borders but do not intervene due to lack of international support\u00a0and prioritizing their own internal issues. International VEOs and transnational criminal\u00a0organizations use Libya as a transit route and base in their global scheme of operations. For\u00a0additional visual information on Future Trends, see Figures 4-6.<\/p>\n<p><div id=\"attachment_2280\" style=\"width: 642px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2280\" class=\"wp-image-2280 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"632\" height=\"338\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_4.jpg 632w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_4-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2280\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 4.<\/p><\/div><br \/>\n<div id=\"attachment_2281\" style=\"width: 633px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2281\" class=\"wp-image-2281 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"623\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_5.jpg 623w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_5-300x166.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 623px) 100vw, 623px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2281\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 5.<\/p><\/div><br \/>\n<div id=\"attachment_2282\" style=\"width: 628px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2282\" class=\"wp-image-2282 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_6.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"618\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_6.jpg 618w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_6-300x172.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 618px) 100vw, 618px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2282\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 6.<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\"><em><strong>Alternate Futures<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>An alternative future in Libya is the development of a bifurcated society that leads to civil war.\u00a0The illegitimate, fundamentalist government in Tripoli remains unwilling to compromise with the\u00a0legitimate government in Tobruk that has formed but proven unable to integrate Islamic fundamentalists\u00a0in a successful manner. In this scenario, lack of international military intervention forces tribes to align\u00a0with other tribes to resist increasingly powerful forces attempting to diminish their territorial dominion.\u00a0Stronger international VEOs achieve greater alignment, sharing labor and resources with coopted tribes\u00a0and local VEOs to form one front. Opposed to these VEOs, Gen Haftar is able to align a number of local\u00a0tribes and moderate support from external sources. Armed conflict escalates with a significant increase in\u00a0IDPs, refugees, casualties, and mass atrocities. Due to the increasing level of conflict, international\u00a0organizations and NGOs are unable to address further reduction of essential services provisions and the\u00a0flow of IDPs and refugees escalates dramatically. For additional visual information on Alternative\u00a0Futures, see Figures 5 and 7.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2283\" style=\"width: 636px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2283\" class=\"wp-image-2283 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_7.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"626\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_7.jpg 626w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_7-300x168.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 626px) 100vw, 626px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2283\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 7.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\"><em><strong>Social Change Theory<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>When applying Bishop and Hines social change theory to Libya, certain theories are relevant to\u00a0the Libya complex problem set. (Bishop, 1) The United States is firmly rooted in Progress\u00a0Theory as the social change theory with the most explanatory power of why today\u2019s societies are\u00a0better than those of the past and will get better over time. The U.S. views Globalization as the\u00a0natural result of Progress Theory. This rationale is based on the belief that Progress Theory\u00a0lends itself to globalization, thereby expanding Western culture and values. We maintain the\u00a0social change theory with the most explanatory power with regard to the situation in Libya is\u00a0Culture Theory. In Libya, as in most Middle Eastern societies, individual and social identity is\u00a0rooted in history and culture. If this holds true, Libya will only accept globalization if it placates\u00a0the people without changing their culture. One Libyan social issue is the friction between\u00a0Cultural theory and Conflict theory as multiple stakeholders see conflict as a means to solidify\u00a0their culture theory across Libya as an instrument of social change. The inequity that permeates\u00a0Libya and which is influenced by outside stakeholders results in the rise in dominance of conflict\u00a0theory\u2019s role in complex group dynamics within Libya. The United States should be cautious in\u00a0formulating military solutions to the Libya problem set as a military-only strategy of either direct\u00a0action or proxy action through Train\/Equip (TE) could result in further conflict rather than\u00a0creating consensus and the protection of culture over conflict.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Anticipatory Management Diagram Analysis\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The NIC 2030 Alternative Futures modeling offers the external and internal issues\u00a0needing to be assessed to provide insights for understanding the Libya problem. (NIC, ii). The\u00a0issues assessed were proposed individually, then discussed to identify key issues worth pursuing\u00a0and issues to monitor as options were developed over time. Applying Molitor\u2019s model of change\u00a0that will frame, advance, and resolve these agreed upon issues can lead to innovation in policy,\u00a0process, or action. (Molitor, 61-68). The external issues requiring further study are: 1)\u00a0demographic patterns as they relate to urbanization, migration and population growth in Libya\u00a0and the region; 2) Governance gaps emphasizing how governments and institutions tend to be\u00a0overwhelmed by change; and 3) Wider view of regional instability in the Middle East. Internal\u00a0issues are: 1) Understanding the environment to inform policy makers who frequently fail to\u00a0recognize, acknowledge or properly define the operational environment; 2) Battle for the\u00a0narrative that lacks a recognition of the importance of information and linking narrative to\u00a0desires; 3) Lack of Interagency coordination in planning, operations, policy, resourcing, and\u00a0cultural understanding; and 4) Host nation partnering applied to the proper resourcing and\u00a0prioritization of assets in and around Libya to create enablers and force multipliers in the\u00a0stabilization process. Simply stated, a more complete analysis and understanding of these issues\u00a0may result in better cultural or process understanding lending itself to a shift in policy or\u00a0resource application that leads to positive change in Libya. (See Figure 8 for a breakout of the\u00a0Anticipatory Management Diagram).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2284\" style=\"width: 646px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2284\" class=\"wp-image-2284 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_8.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"636\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_8.jpg 636w, https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Kilpel\u00e4inen_figure_8-300x162.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2284\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Figure 8.<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"img_caption none\">\n<p class=\"img_caption\"><em><strong>Strategic Recommendations\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Within the Libya system, far and above, the most critical effort must be to advance\u00a0rapprochement efforts between moderate Islamists and secular partisans for control of legislative\u00a0authority. Libya is somewhat unique in that neither rival faction has the wherewithal to\u00a0adequately govern. Moderate Islamists members, while wielding significant cultural clout, lack\u00a0legitimacy in the eyes of critical Western powers or control of Libyan conventional military\u00a0force. Conversely, \u201clegitimate\u201d secular partisans are unable to even convene in the capital city\u00a0or exercise authority over significant segments of the bureaucracy, such as the central bank.\u00a0Absent both legitimacy and authority to govern, well-meaning support efforts are prone to being\u00a0misdirected and ineffective.<\/p>\n<p>Avoid inclination towards a train and equip strategy. Often the knee-jerk reaction to\u00a0failing states and poor governance, western powers often seek to build \u201cpartner capacity.\u201d At the\u00a0moment, however, there is not a reliable partner with which to cooperate. Additionally, capacity,\u00a0especially in the area of security is not the Libyan shortfall&#8211;weapons and sufficiently trained\u00a0soldiers abound. Rather, a successful strategy must focus on incentivizing reconciliation among\u00a0rival but rational actors while simultaneously isolating extremist groups.<\/p>\n<p>There is likely both a high-end option and a low military intervention approach to this\u00a0issue but both must address the political reconciliation process and the security challenges. On\u00a0the high-end, the UN might deploy a peace-keeping force to protect key infrastructure (such as\u00a0the Tripoli airport and energy resources), provide resources to displaced persons, and prevent\u00a0Islamist Extremist actions from undermining the rapprochement process. On the low intervention\u00a0end, Western and African powers serve as a broker for reconciliation leveraging offers of\u00a0security cooperation to an inclusive, representative government as well as ultimately recognition\u00a0and legitimacy. Naturally, foreign powers must weigh intervention against risk of delegitimizing\u00a0government elements; however, for the West and other regional powers the flow of refugees and\u00a0the emergence of the Islamic State may eventually present threats meriting direct action.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div><div  class='hr av-6zsyz-b471ba5482e75b0a604afa4166a853a5 hr-default  avia-builder-el-5  el_after_av_one_full  el_before_av_blog '><span class='hr-inner '><span class=\"hr-inner-style\"><\/span><\/span><\/div><\/p>\n<div  class='av-alb-blogposts template-blog  '  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Blog\" ><article class=\"post-entry post-entry-type-standard post-entry-8921 post-loop-1 post-parity-odd bloglist-simple with-slider post-8921 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-artikkeli category-artikkeli-2026\"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" ><div class=\"blog-meta\"><\/div><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix standard-content'><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><h2 class='post-title entry-title '  itemprop=\"headline\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/kaaderilaulajien-julkaisutoiminta\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permanent Link: Kaaderilaulajien julkaisutoiminta\">Kaaderilaulajien julkaisutoiminta<span class=\"post-format-icon minor-meta\"><\/span><\/a><\/h2><span class=\"post-meta-infos\"><time class=\"date-container minor-meta updated\"  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-04-20T15:45:24+03:00\" >20.4.2026<\/time><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-categories minor-meta\">in <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli-2026\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli 2026<\/a><\/span><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-author minor-meta\">by <span class=\"entry-author-link\"  itemprop=\"author\" ><span class=\"author\"><span class=\"fn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/author\/karisain\/\" title=\"Kirjoittanut: Kari Sainio\" rel=\"author\">Kari Sainio<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><div class=\"read-more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/kaaderilaulajien-julkaisutoiminta\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"more-link-arrow\"><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/span><\/header><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><div class='post_delimiter'><\/div><\/div><div class=\"post_author_timeline\"><\/div><span class='hidden'>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Artikkeli-4-2026-2.jpg<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='height'>487<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='width'>843<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"publisher\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Organization\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='logo' itemscope itemtype='https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/kkunta_weblogo-100x100-1.png<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"author\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" ><span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span><\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-04-20T15:45:24+03:00\" >2026-04-20 15:45:24<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"dateModified\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/dateModified\" >2026-04-20 15:45:24<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"mainEntityOfPage\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/mainEntityOfPage\" ><span itemprop='name'>Kaaderilaulajien julkaisutoiminta<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/article><article class=\"post-entry post-entry-type-standard post-entry-8884 post-loop-2 post-parity-even bloglist-simple with-slider post-8884 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-artikkeli category-artikkeli-2026\"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" ><div class=\"blog-meta\"><\/div><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix standard-content'><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><h2 class='post-title entry-title '  itemprop=\"headline\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/kaaderilaulajien-ukraina-tukikonsertit\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permanent Link: Kaaderilaulajien Ukraina-tukikonsertit\">Kaaderilaulajien Ukraina-tukikonsertit<span class=\"post-format-icon minor-meta\"><\/span><\/a><\/h2><span class=\"post-meta-infos\"><time class=\"date-container minor-meta updated\"  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-03-27T12:30:38+02:00\" >27.3.2026<\/time><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-categories minor-meta\">in <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli-2026\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli 2026<\/a><\/span><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-author minor-meta\">by <span class=\"entry-author-link\"  itemprop=\"author\" ><span class=\"author\"><span class=\"fn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/author\/karisain\/\" title=\"Kirjoittanut: Kari Sainio\" rel=\"author\">Kari Sainio<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><div class=\"read-more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/kaaderilaulajien-ukraina-tukikonsertit\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"more-link-arrow\"><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/span><\/header><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><div class='post_delimiter'><\/div><\/div><div class=\"post_author_timeline\"><\/div><span class='hidden'>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/3-2026-artikkeli.jpg<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='height'>487<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='width'>843<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"publisher\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Organization\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='logo' itemscope itemtype='https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/kkunta_weblogo-100x100-1.png<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"author\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" ><span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span><\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-03-27T12:30:38+02:00\" >2026-03-27 12:30:38<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"dateModified\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/dateModified\" >2026-03-27 12:30:38<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"mainEntityOfPage\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/mainEntityOfPage\" ><span itemprop='name'>Kaaderilaulajien Ukraina-tukikonsertit<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/article><article class=\"post-entry post-entry-type-standard post-entry-8786 post-loop-3 post-parity-odd post-entry-last bloglist-simple with-slider post-8786 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail hentry category-artikkeli category-artikkeli-2026\"  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" ><div class=\"blog-meta\"><\/div><div class='entry-content-wrapper clearfix standard-content'><header class=\"entry-content-header\"><h2 class='post-title entry-title '  itemprop=\"headline\" ><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/02\/23\/risto-sinkko-eu-kansalaisten-nakemyksia-turvallisuudesta-ja-puolustuksesta\/\" rel=\"bookmark\" title=\"Permanent Link: Risto Sinkko: EU-kansalaisten n\u00e4kemyksi\u00e4 turvallisuudesta ja puolustuksesta\">Risto Sinkko: EU-kansalaisten n\u00e4kemyksi\u00e4 turvallisuudesta ja puolustuksesta<span class=\"post-format-icon minor-meta\"><\/span><\/a><\/h2><span class=\"post-meta-infos\"><time class=\"date-container minor-meta updated\"  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-02-23T17:08:33+02:00\" >23.2.2026<\/time><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-categories minor-meta\">in <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/category\/artikkeli-2026\/\" rel=\"tag\">Artikkeli 2026<\/a><\/span><span class=\"text-sep\">\/<\/span><span class=\"blog-author minor-meta\">by <span class=\"entry-author-link\"  itemprop=\"author\" ><span class=\"author\"><span class=\"fn\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/author\/karisain\/\" title=\"Kirjoittanut: Kari Sainio\" rel=\"author\">Kari Sainio<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><div class=\"read-more-link\"><a href=\"https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/2026\/02\/23\/risto-sinkko-eu-kansalaisten-nakemyksia-turvallisuudesta-ja-puolustuksesta\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"more-link-arrow\"><\/span><\/a><\/div><\/span><\/header><footer class=\"entry-footer\"><\/footer><div class='post_delimiter'><\/div><\/div><div class=\"post_author_timeline\"><\/div><span class='hidden'>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Artikkeli-MSC-artikkeli.jpg<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='height'>487<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='width'>843<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"publisher\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Organization\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='logo' itemscope itemtype='https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject'>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span itemprop='url'>https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/kkunta_weblogo-100x100-1.png<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"author\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Person\" ><span itemprop='name'>Kari Sainio<\/span><\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"datePublished\" datetime=\"2026-02-23T17:08:33+02:00\" >2026-02-23 17:08:33<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"dateModified\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/dateModified\" >2026-02-23 17:29:54<\/span><span class='av-structured-data'  itemprop=\"mainEntityOfPage\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/mainEntityOfPage\" ><span itemprop='name'>Risto Sinkko: EU-kansalaisten n\u00e4kemyksi\u00e4 turvallisuudesta ja puolustuksesta<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/article><div class='bloglist-simple'><nav class='pagination'><span class='pagination-meta'>Page 1 of 58<\/span><span class='current'>1<\/span><a href='https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031\/page\/2\/' class='inactive next_page' >2<\/a><a href='https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031\/page\/3\/' class='inactive' >3<\/a><a href='https:\/\/kylkirauta.fi\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031\/page\/2\/'>&rsaquo;<\/a><a 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